A look at potential Trump running mates

The pros and cons of various names

As of writing Ron DeSantis has been in the race for the Republican nomination for President for a little over three months and since then his support has declined considerably. Despite or more accurately in spite of four indictments around the country, Donald Trump remains the overwhelming favorite to win the nomination. With that mind, let’s look at many of the names mentioned for his potential running mate. Donald Trump has been running for President for eight years now and we have a pretty solid grasp on what he looks for in potential running mates.

The Contenders

South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem:

Pros: Kristi Noem is in my view the likeliest candidate to be Trump’s running mate. She has a solidly conservative record, especially on COVID - an area where Trump is a bit weaker on his right flank. Noem did not implement a mask mandate as Governor. She’s been a reliable MAGA footsoldier, relishes the culture war fights, has a strong ag policy (agribusiness is an important financial contributor on the GOP side), and meets Trump’s #1 criteria: he thinks she’s hot. Trump is going to face enormous pressure to pick a woman as his running mate and there are very Republican women who would be viable choices.

Cons: Her solidly conservative record and MAGA style approach to politics won’t help Trump with women. South Dakota is also hardly a competitive state and there’s no constituency her presence on the ticket would help Trump with. Trump’s image is so tarnished at this point that he desperately needs someone who can help him reshape it. Is Kirsti Noem that choice? No.

Florida Congressman Byron Donalds:

Pros: A member of the GOP’s most rightward faction, Byron Donalds has racked up a very conservative record in Congress and has emerged as an attack dog for the Trump campaign against Ron DeSantis.

Cons: Again, Donalds doesn’t really add anything to the ticket. No doubt there will be some Republicans who think Trump should have a Black running mate so he can make inroads with Black voters (very unlikely to happen). We’ve seen this multiple cycles in a row where Republicans have run Black candidates in competitive districts or states, only to find that they perform no better among Black voters than white candidates.

Vivek Ramaswamy:

Pros: Well he’s young and he really, really likes Donald Trump. In fact much of his candidacy for President has been spent praising Trump, much to the former President’s enjoyment. He also enjoys doing TV hits, a quality Trump greatly values in allies. So far it seems like GOP primary voters like what he’s saying so the base is unlikely to object to him as the VP nominee.

Cons: The fast talking youthful businessman loves to toot his own horn and that may be a nonstarter for Donald Trump. Trump would prefer someone whom he views as non-threatening and stands little chance at upstaging him. Ramaswamy’s business record might prove a distraction in the general election and he hails from a fairly red leaning state now (Ohio).

Congresswoman Elise Stefanik:

Pros: You might be hard pressed to find a more vociferous defender of Donald Trump in Congress than the upstate NY Congresswoman. The moderate turned hardcore Trumper has undergone one of the most brazen and disingenuous political shifts in recent memory. A former staffer for George W. Bush and acolyte of former House Speaker Paul Ryan, Stefanik has emerged as a MAGA favorite in recent years. With her North Country seat having trended increasingly Republican that has freed up Stefanik to travel the county in support of various female Republican candidates.

It seems like Stefanik might be one of the better choices for Trump’s running mate. She’s not terribly well known nationwide and Republicans won’t have to worry about holding her safely Republican House seat. As far as politicians go, she’s decently young and will happily toe the Trump line.

Cons: Picking a woman does not magically solve Trump’s problem with women. At this point it has been eight years since Trump first ran for President and the pool of voters who might consider him has shrunk considerably. Her pre-Trump record in Congress has led many on the right to view her with suspicion. She is not a member of the far right House Freedom Caucus and it’s unclear whether she could garner the support of key constituencies in the GOP to support her for VP.

The maybe’s:

Senator Tim Scott:

Scott’s name consistently pops up from commentators but there’s little indication that Trump would ever consider him for that spot. His underwhelming presidential campaign likely works against him but let’s wait and see on that for sure.

South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster:

If you are looking for a bland unremarkable GOP Governor to be the Republican nominee for Vice President, Henry McMaster is probably your number one choice. Donald Trump elevated him to the Governorship and he’s been active in GOP politics since the days since Democrats ran the show in South Carolina. He’s so unmistakably bland and unassuming that his name warrants being mentioned for that reason alone.

The non-starters:

These are names that are mentioned but don’t appear to be in serious contention or are just plain stupid.

Former Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley:

Perennial fence sitter Nikki Haley is often brought up but there is little reason to think Donald Trump would ever consider her. Given her recent comments on abortion in the first GOP debate, antiabortion groups would vociferously oppose her as the VP nominee.

Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene:

She may be one of Donald Trump’s most ardent fans but she is not going to be considered for Trump’s running mate. She’s only in her second term in the House and even Trump surely knows she would be a liability.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr:

Kennedy may be more popular with Republicans than Democrats but even so, his stances are way out of step with the GOP and it is completely preposterous to think a Democrat would be the Republican nominee for Vice President.