Analyzing the new Georgia CDs
Republicans cement their majority in the Peach State
Georgia Senate and House Republicans unveiled their unified congressional district map and no surprise that it seeks to reclaim lost ground. Georgia Republicans have two goals to accomplish with redistricting: win back GA-6 and shore up the rapidly left trending 11th District.
Key Changes:
The 6th District is shifted from Biden +10 to Trump +14.
The 2nd District is bumped down from 51% Black VAP (Voting Age Population) to 49.3% Black VAP. A small but noteworthy change.
The 14th District held by controversial far right freshman Marjorie Taylor Green now absorbs parts of western Cobb County.
The 7th held by freshman Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux becomes a Safely Democratic seat based entirely in Gwinnett County.
Let’s look at three districts on this new map.
Georgia’s 2nd:
Located in southwest Georgia, the 2nd District encompasses most of the state’s Black Belt. At first glance this district appears largely rural but most of the population resides in Columbus, Macon, and Albany. The smaller counties in this district have seen a declining Black population and combined with the rightward shift of rural whites, this district has seen a moderate trend towards the GOP.
Blue Dog Democrat Sanford Bishop has held this district since 1993 and served in the Georgia Legislature for 16 years before that. A lowkey Democrat, Bishop is quite popular here and is known to regularly outperform the top of the ticket. There was some concern that Republicans would further tinker with this district but they opted for minimal change, presumably to avoid a lawsuit alleging racial gerrymander. If Bishop runs for reelection, Democrats shouldn’t have too much trouble holding this seat. If he retires, there are a plethora of Democratic legislators from this area but it is unlikely any of them could recreate his crossover appeal. In the 2021 Senate runoffs, both Ossoff and Warnock won this district 56-44% so it is extremely inelastic. 2022 Rating: Safe D (If Bishop runs again).
Georgia’s 6th:
The 6th District has undergone the most radical changes of any district. The district dramatically shifts northward by picking up all or parts of deep red Cherokee, Dawson, and Forsyth Counties.
Mitt Romney took 70% of the vote in this new district but Trump would have taken below 57% in 2020. Looking at the demographics, this new GA-6 weighs in at 64% white but would have been 73% white on the 2010 census. The Asian population has doubled in those 10 years, going from 7% of the district to 14%. Two term Rep. Lucy McBath has several options right now. She can run statewide for something like Governor or she could primary neighboring Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux in her new Gwinett County based district. McBath certainly has plenty of money but running in the 7th district could pose a challenge for her. If Stacey Abrams declines to run for Governor again, McBath would be a very credible candidate and arguably a better one.
Given the considerable changes in redistricting, a plethora of Republicans are expected to consider bids for this seat. 2022: Safe R (Flip)
Georgia’s 7th District:
As the most overpopulated district in the state, the 7th district needed to shed a considerable amount of voters and the easiest way to do that was to remove deep red Forsyth County from the district. Carolyn Bourdeaux, a white Blue Dog, flipped this seat in 2018 and now ranks as perhaps the Democrat most vulnerable to a primary challenge. A good fit for the version of the district she won, she is an incredibly poor fit for this new version. The Voting Age Population of the new GA-7 is just 33% white.
Mitt Romney still would have carried the 7th District in 2012 but this district is no longer winnable for a Republican. Joe Biden took 62% here so all eyes on will be on the Democratic Primary. Rapidly diversifying Gwinnett County has quickly trended Democratic.