Arizona's 2nd District: O'Halleran fights to survive
The three term Blue Dog fights an uphill battle for reelection.
Three term Rep. Tom O’Halleran from northern Arizona has the dubious honor of being #1 on the list of Democrats most likely to lose reelection He earns this distinction not because he’s done anything wrong but simply because redistricting has turned his district into a safely Republican seat. A Blue Dog Democrat, O’Halleran has never faced any serious opposition for his competitive seat but he drew the short end of the stick this year. He’s running for reelection but faces very steep odds at winning reelection.
O’Halleran’s background is what has contributed to his success so far. He’s a former Republican, previously served in the state legislature and before entering politics, he worked as a police officer. These are qualities that has made him successful in a Romney/Trump/Biden district.
Although Arizona uses an independent commission for redistricting, Republicans got everything they wanted out of it this cycle. Gone is the competitive northern AZ seat, the Tuscon area district is shifted 10 points to the right, and Rep. Greg Stanton’s district is also nudged rightward. For today’s purpose though, I’m just looking at the new AZ-2.
District Overview
The 2nd District encompasses virtually all of northern Arizona including all or parts of Apache, Coconino, Gila, Graham, Maricopa, Mohave, Pinal, and Yavapai Counties. This includes college towns like Flagstaff, wealthy tourism based communities like Sedona, the Navajo Nation, the Grand Canyon, and many other of Arizona’s most iconic tourist attractions.
The district largely resembles the 1st District used from the 2010’s but now all of deep red Yavapai has been added to the district. Demographically there’s no other district quite like this one. The racial breakdown is 55% white, 24% Native, 17% Hispanic.
Statewide results:
The big problem for O’Halleran here is that despite Arizona’s leftward shift, this district’s topline has remained virtually the same. Taking out Yavapai County, the district would have voted for Biden 51-47% in 2020. The lopsided Republican nature of this county really hurts O’Halleran’s chances.
Looking at the Senate races, Mark Kelly did slightly worse than Sinema here, especially in Gila, Pinal, and Yavapai Counties. Something that may give Democrats pause about Arizona’s leftward shift vs Georgia’s is that Arizona has a number of decently large counties that are getting redder. Arizona is a retiree mecca. Many of these counties are dominated by older white voters, who typically don’t have a college degree. These are not the kinds of voters Democrats are doing well with.
This is also the race that features Q of QAnon running for Congress!