Grays Harbor: A Democratic Bastion Turns Red

Republicans make waves in this coastal community

For much of its history, Grays Harbor County was reliably Democratic. Having last voted Republican for Herbert Hoover in 1928, heading into the 2016 election there wasn’t much reason to think Hillary Clinton would lose the county. Then came Donald Trump. His message resonated with voters in this declining industrial county and in other similar counties around the nation. Though the white working class shift in the Midwest is often discussed, the shift in the Pacific Northwest is under covered. Logging communities across the PNW broadly shifted rightward in 2016.

Demographics

Compared to Washington as a whole, Grays Harbor is considerably whiter at 76% vs 64% statewide. Perhaps most importantly, Grays Harbor is not among Washington’s more educated counties, with a BD attainment of just 16.5%. Given these kinds of demographics, it really makes you wonder how places like this remained so Democratic for decades.

Elections

Let’s look at how Grays Harbor has voted over the course of the 2010’s.

2012

President Obama enjoyed considerable support among white working class union voters all around the country. Obama took 54% of the vote here, while then Rep. Jay Inslee took 51%, and Senator Maria Cantwell 61%.

Senator Cantwell enjoyed strong crossover support in 2012, against State Senator Michael Baumgartner. Since her initial election in 2000, Cantwell hasn’t faced any real serious opposition in this solidly blue state. 2012 is the most recent cycle where Grays Harbor backed Democrats in all three major statewide races (President, Governor, and US Senate).

2016

Part of the logic behind nominating Hillary Clinton in 2016 was that she would reverse the Democratic slump in rural or blue collar areas. In the 2008 Democratic Primary, Clinton the candidate of choice for white working class voters. However these votes were misinterpreted as support for her rather than a protest vote.

Vestiges of Democratic support can be seen downballot in 2016. Jay Inslee outran Hillary Clinton here in his bid for a second term and Senator Patty Murray handily carried this county. Murray has never lost this county in any of her Senate races but that seems fairly likely to happen next year. Though it is worth noting that Murray increased her margin here from 2010.

2018

With the rise in polarization, Cantwell saw her blue collar support drop by 2018. Cantwell ended up losing Grays Harbor 52-48% but popular Congressman Derek Kilmer handily carried it, 55-45%. Though Kilmer hails from the Tacoma suburbs, he has consistently enjoyed a decent amount of blue collar support in his district.

Let’s look next at the local offices. Grays Harbor elects seven countywide offices: Assessor, Auditor, Clerk, Coroner, Prosecutor, Sheriff, and Treasurer. After the 2018 elections, the composition is five Democrats, one independent, and one Republican. Democratic Auditor Chris Thomas lost reelection in one of the two contested races.

In the northern half of the county, there’s a clear correlation between Republican areas and support for the independent candidate for Auditor. That correlation begins to disappear as you head south, especially into the southeastern corner of the county.

2020

With Trump back on the ballot, downballot Democrats fared poorly here. The only statewide Democrat to carry Grays Harbor was Insurance Commissioner Mike Kriedler. Even Rep. Derek Kilmer lost Grays Harbor 50-49%. Governor Jay Inslee lost it by nearly 14%. Downballot results have started to catch up with the top of the ticket.

Democrats usually underperform the presidential margin in gubernatorial races and Jay Inslee was no exception in 2020. His quixotic bid for President that resulted in extended time out of state likely was received poorly in places like Gray Harbor.

Political Future

A key test of the realignment in Grays Harbor will be the local offices up next year. If Republicans contest them this time, they’re likely to find success. Grays Harbor is firmly in the Republican column at the state and federal levels so there’s little doubt it will vote Republican again in 2024. Beyond that? It’s possible the county could swing back around to Democrats due to the tourism industry but that seems more likely to happen first in Pacific County to the south.