North Carolina: The Judiciary Strikes Back
A look at the new districts in North Carolina
Overview
Stop if you’ve heard this before: There’s a protracted legal battle over North Carolina’s legislative and congressional district maps. As you’d expect, Republicans in the legislature here passed fairly harsh maps. Democrats sued and this case ultimately ended up at the NC Supreme Court, which has a narrow Democratic majority. Much to my surprise, both the House and Senate passed the House Redistricting Bill on a bipartisan basis. The Senate maps were not passed by such a wide margin and the congressional map was passed along party lines. TLDR: The Court upheld the legislative maps and implemented their own congressional map. Let’s take a look at that because it will be very interesting.
Partisan Composition:
2012 President: Romney 8-6
2016 President: Trump 8-6
2020 President: Trump 7-7
District Profiles:
Just 1/14 districts on this map is likely to be competitive in 2022.
NC-1 (Northeastern NC): This predominately rural district is home to a large chunk of the state’s Black population. Longtime incumbent Democratic Rep. GK Butterfield is retiring. Former State Senator Erica Smith (D) dropped out of the Senate race to run here. State Senator Don Davis (D) is also running here. Either of them would the prohibitive favorite in the general election given the racialized voting patterns in this part of the state.
Though all statewide Democrats in 2020 did carry this district, Black turnout in a midterm with a Democrat president is a big question at the moment. My rating: Likely D
NC-2 (Raleigh, Northern Wake County): Freshman Rep. Deborah Ross will have no trouble getting reelected here. My rating: Safe D
NC-3 (Coastal Plains): Rep. Greg Murphy succeeded longtime quirky Rep. Walter Jones (R) in a special election after his death. This is a deep red district and Murphy will be here for a long time. My rating: Safe R
NC-4 (Chapel Hill and Durham): Iconic Chapel Hill Rep. David Price is retiring after 30+ years in Congress. A political science professor, Price has literally written the book on Congress. His likely successor is progressive Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam, who would be the first Muslim elected to Congress from North Carolina. My rating: Safe D
NC-5 (Mayberryland): Northwestern North Carolina is ancestrally Republican and arch social conservative Rep. Virginia Foxx will easily get reelected here. Big question is how many more terms she runs for. My rating: Safe R
NC-6 (Greensboro and northern Piedmont): Rep. Kathy Manning can breath a sigh of relief after seeing her district repeatedly chopped up in redistricting. Though this district is redder than her current one since it drops Winston-Salem, it is unlikely she faces any substantive challenge. One potential candidate is former NC State football player Bo Hines, who has repeatedly switched districts during his campaign. My rating: Safe D
NC-7 (Sandhills and coastal SE North Carolina). Rep. David Rouzer moved from Johnston County down to Wilmington a few years ago and he’ll have no trouble getting reelected here. Rouzer flipped this district in 2014 and it’s only gotten redder since. Ancestrally Democratic Robeson County is now entirely within the 7th district, leaving State Rep. Charles Graham with no good options if he continues his bid for Congress. Graham, a member of the Lumbee Tribe has kept a centrist voting record in the State House. Graham has pivoted leftward on social issues since he announced his bid for Congress. He is quite popular in Lumberton but he faces tall odds no matter where he runs. My rating: Safe R
NC-8 (Charlotte exurbs, western Sandhills, and the Triad): Rep. Dan Bishop is seeking reelection here. Much of the district is new to him but as a conservative incumbent, it seems unlikely he faces much if any challenge in the primary. My Rating: Safe R
NC-9 (Triad): Although this district includes some heavily Democratic areas like Fayetteville and Siler City, deep red Randolph County ensures it will remain in Republican hands. Rep. Richard Hudson will seek reelection here. He is the prohibitive favorite in this GOP vote sink. My rating: Safe R
NC-10 (western Charlotte metro): Rep. Patrick McHenry will have no trouble here. My rating: Safe R
NC-11 (Appalachia): Lightning-rod freshman Rep. Madison Cawthorn previously decided to seek reelection elsewhere after a new Safe R district was created west of Charlotte. Cawthorn’s candidacy was previously challenged under a once obscure provision of the US Constitution but that legal issue has been resolved. This district moves several points leftward from its current iteration but Cawthorn shouldn’t have trouble in the general election. My rating: Safe R
NC-12 (Charlotte and northern Charlotte suburbs): Rep. Alma Adam’s district picks up parts of rapidly Dem trending Cabarrus County. Biden took 64% of the vote here so she’ll have no trouble getting reelected here. Adams is a longtime fixture of North Carolina politics and is originally from Greensboro. My rating: Safe D
NC-13 (Southern Raleigh Metro area): The new 13th district includes southern Wake County, all of Johnston County, and parts of Harnett and Wayne Counties. State Senator Wiley Nickel (D-Cary) has already switched to running in this district but it is unlikely he clears the field. since he has blatantly district shopped.
The fact that this map will be in place for just one election will put off many potential candidates from running. Former Rep. George Holding (R-Raleigh) could mount a comeback though. Former Rep. Renee Ellmers has been attempting to stage a political comeback for the last several years but has repeatedly lost in the Republican primary. It seems likely she continues her campaign and switches over to this district. My Rating: Toss-Up
NC-14 (Charlotte and Gastonia): The new 14th District includes the eastern half of Gaston County and much of Mecklenburg. This open seat is trending Democratic and went for Biden by 16%. State Senator Jeff Jackson (D) who dropped out of the US Senate race late last year lives here and would be the immediate frontrunner if he ran. Other potential candidates include former State Rep. Chaz Beasley (D) who ran unsuccessfully for Lt. Governor in 2020. Charlotte Mayor Vi Lyles (D) is very unlikely to run.
No doubt disappointed is House Speaker Tim Moore, who wanted to run for Congress and initially drew himself a Safe Republican district. Madison Cawthorn switched districts and announced he would run in the 14th district instead. That forced Moore to change his plans but at Biden +16, this district is now unwinnable for a Republican. My Rating: Safe D (Gain)