Ocean State Blues

A look at Harris' performance in Rhode Island and why Democrats still dominate in Trumpland

Not many political analysts give attention to Rhode Island every four years. I on the other hand am known for my deep love of the state and talk about it frequently. The state swung seven points to the right from 2020-2024, a point more than the nation. Though often thought of as a state full of blue collar white Catholic the state is home to a substantial Hispanic population, who skew decidedly working class. Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Harris’ biggest losses vs Biden came in the state’s urban areas like Cranston, Central Falls, and Providence etc. No city or town saw a larger swing towards Trump than working class Central Falls where some 65% of the population is Hispanic. Harris’ 63% of the vote in Central Falls was way down from Biden’s 72% there in 2020. This city which was the birthplace of my Dad and where his side of the family first arrived in the United States in the early 1920’s has swung right three cycles in a row.

White working class communities like Burrillville in northwestern Rhode Island also continued their march to the GOP. Burillville is now Rhode Island’s reddest town which makes it all the more amazing that Obama won it twice. Almost every town Harris won was along the affluent coastline, a reflection of where the Democratic Party’s base of support is primarily now. Anyways, the presidential results in the state weren’t too surprising based on the national outcome but it’s the downballot stuff where Rhode Island is really interesting.

Examining the downballot races:

The legislative races:

The Rhode Island Legislature is home to more Trump district Democrats than any other state in the country. In the State House Republicans only netted one seat and Democrats came surprisingly close to flipping the open seat held by Barbara Ann Fenton-Fung, which she flipped in 2020. This was an open seat that went for Trump by 9% and had already started voting for Republicans at the legislative level.

Looking at the Trump district Democrats only two of them were first elected in 2024. This gives you an idea on whether it’s just down to the strength of longtime incumbents. Given how many have been elected in the years since Trump first ran for President it’s remarkable that this level of ticket splitting continues, even in open seats.

Something to notice is the large number of ethnic last names. In addition, five of these candidates were endorsed by Rhode Island Right to Life in 2024. Moderate positions and strong community ties have kept Democrats thriving in places that are otherwise moving away from the party. There are only two Republicans who represent Harris won districts, one in the House and one in the Senate.

Looking at the occupations of all the split ticket winners is quite interesting because there’s a wide variety of occupations present. Several Dems have law enforcement backgrounds, others run small businesses, or are teachers. As I said above, the strong local ties are what keeps Democrats going in otherwise hostile territory. How much longer this phenomenon can last though is unclear. We’re well into the Trump era and yet there are Dems on this list who represents districts Trump carried all three times.

Another very interesting statistic I found is that six Democrats across the two chambers represent districts that voted for Trump all three times. This can’t all be explained away as downballot lag. Clearly voters do make a distinction between the Democratic candidates for President vs their local Democrats.

Congress:

In Rhode Island’s 1st District Rep. Gabe Amo sought a full term after winning a special election in 2023. Amo won several towns that simultaneously voted for Trump: North Smithfield, Smithfield, and Woonsocket. The reddest of those towns was Smithfield which was Trump +8 but voted for Amo by 2%. Smithfield didn’t even back Senator Sheldon Whitehouse last year, which is an impressive performance by Amo.

It’s of course worth noting that there was a significant amount of vote dropoff on the Republican side. Waters received 18,000 fewer votes than Trump while Amo received only 1,500 fewer votes than Harris. It’s not clear what Republicans can do to get these Trump only voters to be interested in downballot candidates.

In places like Central Falls which swung heavily towards Trump there was a stark dropoff downballot. Republicans Allen Waters received only 61% of Trump’s votes. Trump has unique appeal that does not apply to any other candidate.

Rhode Island’s 2nd District is the state’s theoretically competitive congressional district but in practice it’s rarely actually competitive. The presidential toplines have proven fairly swingy in the Trump era but downballot Rhode Island is much more Democratic. Harris only won this district 52-47% but Senator Whitehouse carried it 57-43% and Seth Magaziner won his second term by an even wider margin. Bottom line is don’t expect a competitive race here anytime soon. Both incumbents are in a strong position to run statewide whenever longtime Senator Jack Reed retires. Having been elected statewide twice Magaziner has the clear edge over Amo.

After Rep. Jim Langevin announced he would not seek reelection in 2022 Republicans recruited former Cranston Mayor Allan Fung to run for this district since he only narrowly lost the 2nd district to Governor Gina Raimondo in 2018. The thinking behind running him was that he has a moderate reputation and universal name recognition but Democratic State Treasurer Seth Magaziner was ultimately victorious. With Fung declining to run again, GOP efforts to target Magaziner in 2024 fell through and he improved dramatically across the district. He carried the town of Johnston even as it voted for Trump by 19%.

Democrats improved considerably from 2022-2024 but downballot the broader shifts can be seen. Heavily Hispanic parts of Providence saw a pretty decent sized swing to the right from 2022. Magaziner improved the most in Cranston, Johnston, and broadly central RI in general.

In fact both incumbents also outran Joe Biden’s performance in 2020. That’s very impressive for Gabe Amo given that held no elected office prior to his service in Congress. He does however has deep ties to state government, having served in Gina Raimondo’s administration. He also has prior campaign experience in Rhode Island having worked on Sheldon Whitehouse’s 2006 campaign, the Obama 08 campaign, Raimondo 2018, and Biden 2020. For 37 years old he has remarkable experience.

US Senate:

Looking at what changed between 2018 and 2024 in the Senate race reveals a coalition similar to that of the presidential race but with a number of key differences. Whitehouse ran much weaker in many of the state’s urban communities but also did better in places like Cranston and even in some of the more white working class heavy areas in Rhode Island.

It’s no surprise that Whitehouse did better this time in wealthy coastal communities like Barrington, which is the state’s most heavily college educated town. What is interesting though is that Whitehouse improved from 2018 in some of those northern towns like Smithfield and Lincoln.

Takeaways

Rhode Island’s pronounced rightward swing is largely explained by the national swing and the swing in other places home to large amounts of Hispanic voters. If the Democratic nominee in 2028 does better than Harris with Hispanics and I think that’s a fairly reasonable assumption then there is little reason to think Rhode Island would be worth watching. If the Democratic nominee continues bleeding support with Hispanics then we are having a very different conversation about this state. There’s little doubt it will remain blue but perhaps a shade of lighter blue than Democrats have been accustomed to.

I adore Rhode Island. It’s long been my favorite state and its quirky politics make it a rarity in this country these days. If you have suggestions on another state you would like to see me cover in this detail please feel free to let me know.