The Golden State Shuffle
A look at the new competitive districts in California
Redistricting Overview:
Redistricting the nation’s largest state is no easy task for the California Redistricting Commission, especially when the state was losing a congressional district. California uses an independent commission comprising purely of citizens from across the state. Though many on the right accuse the commission of having a Democratic bias, the Golden State is overwhelmingly blue. It makes sense the commission’s members would skew liberal.
One of the key differences between how the commission draws maps vs how the legislature did in past cycles is the commission’s emphasis on creating a number of competitive districts. California emerged as a major House battleground in the 2010’s and that trend is set to continue in 2022. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates 40/52 seats as Safe for either party, The Cook Political Report rates 41/52 seats as safe for either party, and Inside Elections rates 43/52 as safe for either party. State legislatures seek to minimize competitive races by shoring up incumbents. A good example of this during this cycle is New Jersey, where the new map produces just one district that is likely to be heavily contested in 2022.
Toss-Up Races:
These three districts are all Republican held seats that each outlet currently considers a tossup.
CA-22 (Central Valley):
First elected in 2012, Rep. David Valadao (R) held down this Democratic leaning district from 2013-2019 but was ousted by a mediocre Democratic candidate in 2018 in a race that Democrats didn’t take too seriously. Valadao narrowly won his seat back against Rep. TJ Cox in 2020. Democrats have finally landed their prize recruit this cycle - Moderate Democratic Assemblyman Rudy Salas. Salas regularly rebuffed Democratic efforts to draft him to run for Congress but he’s finally taking the plunge this cycle.
Despite Biden’s well documented struggles with Hispanic voters, he got the same share of the vote as Hillary Clinton here. Though Valadao has overcome this district’s partisan lean before, partisanship has been catching up to him and Salas is a top tier recruit, who significantly outran Biden in 2020.
CA-27 (Northern Los Angeles County)
Initially considered a longshot candidate against Rep. Katie Hill (D), then candidate Mike Garcia’s chances significantly increased when Hill resigned from Congress in disgrace. Garcia lucked out in a 2020 special election when Democrats did not field a Hispanic candidate or significantly invest in the special. Garcia narrowly won a rematch against Assemblywoman Christy Smith in the regularly scheduled election in 2020 and Smith is running again. This time, Smith has friendlier district lines as the district drops historically Republican Simi Valley and picks up more Democratic turf.
Biden’s margin in the new district goes from 10 points to 12 points. This also shifts the district from a district Mitt Romney carried by 2% in 2012 to one Barack Obama carried by 1% that year. Perhaps most significantly the most important statistic is Biden’s share of the vote in this district - 55%.
CA-45: (Western Orange County)
Michelle Steel finds herself running in a less favorable district this time around. The new 45th District includes parts of western Orange County and far eastern Los Angeles County. The trendline of this district is a bit unclear since it swung significantly from Romney to Clinton in 2016 but swung towards Trump in 2020.
This is a really interesting district that is very difficult to pinpoint where it’s at now. After initially running against Young Kim, Democratic candidate Jay Chen is now running against Steel. Running an Asian candidate here is a smart move by Democrats. Despite what seems like a favorable cycle for Republicans, as of now it looks like Steel is still in a tossup race.
Leans Races:
Both of these districts are held by Democrats. Two term Reps. Josh Harder and Katie Porter are running in substantially redrawn districts so they don’t enjoy much of an incumbent advantage this cycle.
CA-13 (Modesto and the Central Valley):
With the retirement of longtime Stockton area Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney, Rep. Josh Harder quickly announced he would seek reelection in the 9th district rather than run in the 13th. With that announcement, Democratic Assemblyman Adam Gray announced he was running for the 13th District.
This district is anchored around the city of Modesto. By California standards, Modesto is only a mid sized city but it’s home to over 200,000 people. Famously it’s the hometown of George Lucas and served as the setting for one of his earliest films - American Graffiti.
So far Republican recruitment here has been poor due to the party’s thin bench in this part of the state. Democrats are mild but not overwhelming favorites to retain this seat.
CA-47 (Coastal Orange County):
‘Resistance’ hero Rep. Katie Porter is running in this district which somewhat resembles her current district. It includes parts of the old 48th district but Rep. Michelle Steel (R) won’t seek reelection here. Porter is a fundraising giant but her electoral performance is nothing to write home about. She underperformed Biden in 2020 but that’s partly due to her district’s deep Republican roots.
Porter will have an enormous financial advantage over her opponent but money isn’t everything and she isn’t likely to enjoy much of an incumbency advantage here. Much of the district is new to her but partisanship wise it’s the same as her old district. Porter is favored and is more likely than not to win reelection but this race isn’t going to be a blowout for her.
Likely Races:
These are races that at the moment don’t look like they’re going to be competitive and probably won’t be but they can’t quite be put in the ‘safe’ column. The three ratings sites disagree on which races are in this category and I’ll explore why.
CA-3: (Northern Sacramento suburbs/exurbs)
In the latest round of musical chairs, Rep. Tom McClintock is once again switching districts and will move over to the safely Republican CA-5 rather than here. Failed California Gubernatorial Recall candidate and Assemblyman Kevin Kiley is the GOP frontrunner for this district. Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones also recently announced a bid for this district. The new 3rd District essentially combines parts of the old 1st, 4th, 7th, and 8th districts.
This is a massive district geographically, stretching from Northern California all the way down to the southern end of the state. It includes suburbs, exurbs, and rural areas. Whoever emerges as the Republican nominee here should be the decent favorite in the general election. This is more of a 2024 target for Democrats.
CA-9: (Stockton Area)
In a surprising move, longtime Congressman Jerry McNerney is deciding to retire rather than run for reelection here. First elected in 2007, McNerney has been a low profile Congressman during his tenure. Josh Harder moving over to this seat doesn’t quite take it off the board but it’s not exactly a top Republican target either. Average rating: Likely D
CA-21: (Fresno and the Central Valley)
Rep. Jim Costa has been a fixture of California politics since the 1970’s and though his electoral skills have never been particularly impressive, he shouldn’t have any trouble in this new district that voted for Joe Biden by 20%. Representing one of the most important agricultural areas in the country, Costa is one of the highest ranking Democrats on the House Agriculture Committee and could become the top Democrat on the committee if Chairman David Scott (D-GA) retires this cycle.
Though the Crystal Ball rates this one as Likely D, the others consider it safely in the Democratic corner. Even in a mega wave year, there’s not much reason to think a Democratic incumbent in a Biden +20 district should have too much trouble winning reelection. The last time a district either party's nominee took 59% or more of the vote flipped was 2008. This isn't 2008 anymore and that level ticket splitting no longer exists. Average Rating: Safe D
CA-25: (Palm Springs, Inland Empire)
Like CA-21, the Crystal Ball rates this as ‘Likely D’ but both Cook and Inside Elections rate this district as ‘Solid Democratic’. Five term Rep. Raul Ruiz (D) has locked down this district since defeating longtime Rep. Mary Bono (R) in 2012 and there’s very little reason to think he’ll face a competitive race this year. An emergency room doctor, Ruiz is very popular here and regularly outruns the ticket. This district has expanded substantially in redistricting but in terms of partisanship, it’s not seen a huge change. The district is now majority Hispanic and extends down to the border.
Parts of this district have deep Republican roots. When he was elected in 2012, Ruiz became the first Democrat to represent Palm Springs since 1971. These days, it’s not particularly hospitable to Republicans though. Average rating: Safe D
CA-40: (Northern Orange County)
Young Kim is running in a completely redrawn district this cycle and benefits from her new district being substantially much more Republican than her current one. However the situation long term is not as rosy for her. This district has undergone a considerable shift since 2012.
Right now it looks like Kim is the solid favorite for reelection this year but this district’s rapid leftward shift means the district can’t be taken off the board completely. This is more of a 2024 target for Democrats than 2022. Average Rating: Likely R
CA-41: (Interior Riverside County)
Rep. Ken Calvert is the most senior Republican in California’s congressional delegation and has rarely faced competitive races over the years in what has generally been a solidly Republican district. This time around, though Calvert finds himself in a competitive district. In the 2011 redistricting cycle, what the commission did was put Riverside County’s rising Hispanic population in with white liberal communities and create the 36th District. Now there’s enough Hispanic population to make Ruiz’s district majority Hispanic and with the intention of maximizing competitiveness, liberal areas were added into Calvert’s district.
Some will say this is a gerrymandered district and people who say that would not be wrong. It is a gerrymander but if your goal is to create more competitive districts in California, that means some Republican held districts are gonna have to become competitive.
Calvert last faced a competitive race in the 1990’s so he’s definitely not used to actively campaigning for reelection. Still, given that this is a midterm with an unpopular Democratic President, Calvert is probably going to be fine.
CA-49: (Coastal San Diego)
Like many Democratic incumbents, Mike Levin underperformed expectations in 2020 but his new district is very similar to his current one. This is on the backburner for GOP targets. In a mega wave, Levin is vulnerable but right now he shouldn’t be too concerned.
This new district is actually just a little bit redder than the current one but it’s not a huge shift. The San Diego area is not particularly friendly to Republicans anymore though. The ideal GOP recruit here would be former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer (R), who is mounting a quixotic bid Governor again after flopping in the 2021 Gubernatorial recall. Faulconer is a moderate conservative and has high name recognition from his time as Mayor. He would also likely enjoy better fundraising a congressional candidate than as a gubernatorial one. Average Rating: Likely D
Editor’s Note: Thanks for reading. This piece got delayed quite a bit due to my unforeseen health issues and I intended it to be a bit more fleshed out.
Really good maps and analysis
Love this! So informative!