Washington's 4th District: Yakima and the Tri-Cities
A pro-impeachment Republicans looks to be in strong shape for reelection
Long a Republican bastion, Washington’s 4th Congressional District is the reddest district in the Pacific Northwest. Having elected only three Democrats since its creation, Washington 4 is a district with ancestral roots in the Republican Party. Republican Dan Newhouse represents this district currently. First elected in 2014, Newhouse is a mainstream Republican who primarily focuses on local issues.
In this deeply Republican district, that has not been without controversy on his right flank. Newhouse was one of just 10 House Republicans who supported the second impeachment of President Trump. Let’s take a deeper dive into his district and I’ll show why Newhouse doesn’t have much to fear from a more right wing challenger.
District Profile:
WA-4 encompasses almost all of central Washington. This predominately rural district is an agricultural center in the state and is home to an increasingly large Hispanic population as a result. It is worth mentioning that many of these Hispanic residents are migrant workers and thus unable to vote. On the 2020 Census, 40% of the district’s population is now Hispanic but that number drops down to 35% when you look at voting age population. The 2019 American Community Survey estimated the Citizen Voting Age Population at just 23%.
Elections
2014 and 2016
In 2014, longtime Congressman Doc Hastings retired and was succeeded by former Washington Agriculture Director Dan Newhouse. In the general election, Newhouse faced former NFL player Clint Didier in an all Republican contest. Newhouse won just two of the district’s eight counties against Didier.
In 2016, Newhouse faced a rematch from Clint Didier and improved significantly upon his 2014 showing. Newhouse’s large victory was in large part thanks to Democratic support. Newhouse took 64% in his home county of Yakima and dominated up north as well. Didier won his home county of Franklin (where he would later be elected County Commissioner) and the small portion of Walla Walla County in CD4. Newhouse’s share of the vote was overall in line with the normal partisanship of this district.
Much of the third party vote in the presidential race here went to Senator Patty Murray, who took an impressive 44% of the vote here. Murray’s rural and/or blue collar appeal was quite notable in this election. It was the last gasp of the old Democratic coalition in Washington.
2018
Newhouse won reelection in 2018 easily in an uneventful race all around. Democrats targeted three districts in Washington that year (3, 5, and 8) so the 4th was regarded as a safely Republican district. Senator Maria Cantwell didn’t fare well here either, taking 38.5% of the vote.
2020
In 2020, Newhouse ran well ahead of the ticket, taking 66% of the vote against an underfunded Democrat. Governor Jay Inslee won a third term but ran behind Biden here. His liberal policies as Governor are unpopular in this rural conservative district. Joe Biden took 39% of the vote here, which was an improvement over Hillary Clinton’s 35%. No Democratic nominee for President has carried a single county here since Bill Clinton in 1992 but that could change as Yakima and Walla Walla tack leftward.
Thanks to the top two system, Newhouse should easily prevail over a more right wing challenger in the general election. He has proven crossover appeal and in this deep red seat, Democratic voters are likely to back him because for them he’s the lesser of two evils.
Redistricting:
Washington uses an eight member bipartisan redistricting committee and given the 4th district’s location in the state, don’t expect any drastic changes here. The 4th District will largely retain its shape but Newhouse could find himself representing some new areas. Will that be enough to offset the top-two advantage he has? I think that’s unlikely.
Next article: October 18